Navigating Uncertainty During Covid

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security.

Covid may look and feel like a normal economic cycle but this is one movie you haven’t seen before. It really is “different this time”.

COVID is not a typical economic shock, it’s a 1-in-100-year global health event. For this reason, we do well to start thinking in terms of BC (Before Covid), AC (After Covid) and, most crucially, DC (During Covid).

DC is likely at least a 3-year phase, so think March 2023. Although promising vaccines have emerged, it will take at least 9 months to vaccinate a majority of the developed world and a further 12-18 months to assess efficacy and adjust travel and policy settings.

This is not to mention vaccine-resistant mutations, trade wars or the challenges of vaccinating the developing world.

Things may go swimmingly well of course, but then again, they may not. The world is unpredictable at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

As always, the race belongs to the short term realist / long term optimist. Aim for a 3-year funding buffer to cater for the possibility of a second wave economic shock. Then, act boldly to sow initiatives that will reap rewards in 7-10 years from today.

In the long run, optimists have an uncanny habit of emerging from the fog as winners.