Windows Don’t Stay Open Forever

A note to young leaders.

Remarkable achievements appear inevitable in hindsight. But that’s merely an optical illusion. The real mover is bold and decisive leadership.

Consider the reunification of East and West Germany.

A few days before the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 – West Germans were asked about their hopes for reunification. More than 80% were in favour, but only 3% believed it would happen in their lifetime.

Chancellor Helmut Kohl was firmly in the 3% camp.

Astonishingly, just 19 days after the fall of the Wall, Kohl stood before the Bundestag to present a Ten-Point Program for re-unification.

How did Kohl manage to prepare a comprehensive plan on such a complex issue so quickly?

Sleepless nights and zero consultation. He hadn’t cleared the plan with his coalition partners, his Western allies, or even his own foreign minister.

His gamble drew immediate fire. Thatcher reportedly said she preferred “two Germanys to one”. At home, the opposition leader, Oskar Lafontaine, called the plan a “diplomatic blunder.”

Kohl pushed through it anyway, and by February 1990 he had extracted from Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, a grudging green light for a unified Germany to remain in NATO.

It’s hard to overstate how narrow the opening was. Within a year, the Soviet position had hardened.

Windows of opportunity open and shut suddenly, like shutters banging in a storm.

Storms will come. The readiness is all.